Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates
In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of headline GDP and 10 major components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We ask a number of questions about various characteristics of the differences between the initial estimates, available one month after the end of the quarter, and the estimates available three months after the end of the quarter. Do the first estimates have the same directional signs as the later numbers? Are the original numbers unbiased estimates of the later figures? Are any observed biases related to the state of the economy? Finally, we determine whether there is a significant difference between the vector of the 30-day estimates of the 10 major components and the vector of the 90-day estimates of the same components. We conclude that, under most circumstances, despite the existence of some bias, an analyst could use the early data to obtain a realistic picture of what had happened in the economy in the previous quarter.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1980. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," NBER Working Papers 0608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederick Joutz & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Data revisions and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1011-1016.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009.
"Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?,"
2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006.
"Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
- Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001.
"Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
- Aruoba, Boragan, 2005.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "Estimating GNP: the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-10.
- Mork, Knut Anton, 1987. "Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 165-75, April.
- Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010.
"Empirical simultaneous confidence regions for path-forecasts,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2010,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dean Croushore, 2011.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.
- Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000.
"News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Forecast disagreement among FOMC members," Working Papers 2009-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1982. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 87-119, January.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Neftci, Salih N. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 1991. "Properties and Stochastic nature of BEA's early estimates of GNP," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 231-239, August.
- Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:736-750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.