IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bes/jnlbes/v8y1990i2p191-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product

Author

Listed:
  • de Leeuw, Frank

Abstract

Two aspects of reliability--revisions and errors--need separate analysis. Revisions in gross national product (GNP) estimates are large in relation to the size of changes that matter to businesses and policymakers; nevertheless, preliminary estimates convey a lot of information about what the revised estimates will show. Errors in GNP estimates can plausibly be either larger or smaller than revisions. The distinction between gathering errors and adjustment errors helps us understand (1) the absence of any measure of the size of GNP errors and (2) the ways in which national-income statisticians go about reducing errors. These ideas suggest several guidelines for improving GNP estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:2:p:191-203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bloom, David E. & Killingsworth, Mark R., 1985. "Correcting for truncation bias caused by a latent truncation variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 131-135, January.
    2. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Interindustry Technology Flows and Productivity Growth: A Reexamination," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 241-250 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. George J. Stigler & James K. Kindahl, 1970. "The Behavior of Industrial Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stig70-1.
    4. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 1986. "Energy prices and induced innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, pages 67-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 237-248.
    2. Chris Bajada, 2000. "An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure," Working Paper Series 103, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 736-750.
    4. Christopher Bajada, 2001. "An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 27-61, May.
    5. Oller, Lars-Erik & Tallbom, Christer, 1996. "Smooth and timely business cycle indicators for noisy Swedish data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 389-402.
    6. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 177-197.
    7. Christopher Bajada, 2002. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, pages 276-286.
    8. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2009. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, pages 206-233.
    9. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 205-217.
    10. Chris Bajada, 2001. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Working Paper Series 110, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:2:p:191-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.