IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v43y2012i3p1299-1320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accuracy and reliability of Spanish regional accounts (CRE-95)

Author

Listed:
  • Verónica Cañal-Fernández

Abstract

Are estimates accurate? Are these data reliable? Can we evaluate whether successive revisions of the first estimate bring additional information, or whether they are due to the correction of earlier inaccuracies of bias, which does not add any useful information to economic analysts? The response is that a statistical technique, known in economic literature as news versus noise analysis can be used to answer these questions. These concepts were first introduced in ground breaking articles by Mankiw et al. ( 1984 ) on revisions to money stock and Mankiw and Shapiro ( 1986 ) on revisions to Gross National Product in the United States. This method claims that the proximity of the first estimate to the definitive one can be a clue as to its quality. Many studies investigate the magnitude and nature of errors contained throughout the National Account System estimates; however, economic literature offers no option for judging accuracy and reliability in the main Regional Account aggregates, and therefore, this methodology is adopted to assess the accuracy and reliability of the revision process of the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rates at basic prices, 1995 Base, within the Spanish Regional Accounts (CRE-95). For that purpose, this study examines five comprehensive revisions analyses for a range of eighteen Autonomous Communities (NUTS-2) during 1999. Main conclusions are: the quality of the estimates tends to increase over time; and the process can be explained better as reflecting new information than as correcting measurement errors so that the National Statistics Institute’s procedure can be deemed to be suitable. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica Cañal-Fernández, 2012. "Accuracy and reliability of Spanish regional accounts (CRE-95)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1299-1320, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1299-1320
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0513-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-011-0513-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-011-0513-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "News, noise, and estimates of the \"true\" unobserved state of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
    4. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Introduction to "Errors in Provisional Estimates of Gross National Product"," NBER Chapters, in: Errors in Provisional Estimates of Gross National Product, pages 3-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert York & Paul Atkinson, 1997. "The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 171, OECD Publishing.
    8. Dennis Fixler & Bruce Grimm, 2006. "GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 213-229, June.
    9. Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Errors in Provisional Estimates of Gross National Product," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cole69-1, March.
    10. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    11. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
    12. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1982. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 87-119, January.
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1980. "On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information," NBER Working Papers 0608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "Measurement error of global production," ISS Working Papers - General Series 632, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Concha Artola & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun & Alejandro Fiorito & Diego Vila, 2018. "Monitoring the Spanish economy from a regional perspective: main elements of analysis," Occasional Papers 1809, Banco de España.
    3. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2017. "Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(3), pages 133-154, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    2. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Roland Döhrn, 2023. "Are German National Accounts informationally efficient?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 23-42, March.
    4. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    6. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    7. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    8. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2009. "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 161-181.
    9. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. Fabio Busetti, 2006. "Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
    11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1983. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 1070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 0845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    14. J. Steven Landefeld & Eugene P. Seskin & Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2008. "Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 193-216, Spring.
    15. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    17. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    18. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    19. Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    20. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spanish regional accounts; Gross value added; Accuracy; Reliability; Revisions; Growth rates; C1; C82; C22; C53; C10; E00; E01;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1299-1320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.