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Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

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  • Michael Clements

    () (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

Abstract

We consider whether there is any evidence that macro forecasters attempt to forecast data-vintages beyond the Örst estimates. Our approach requires that both the Örst and subsequent estimates are predictable prior to the Örst estimate being released using publically available information. There is some weak evidence that consensus forecasts of consumers' expenditure target vintage estimates after the first estimate, and that around a fifth of individual forecasters put some weight on later estimates of the macro variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2017-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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