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Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?

  • Clements, Michael P.

We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We find evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reflect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207011001348
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 297-308

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:2:p:297-308
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  4. Hervé Le Bihan & Philippe Andrade, 2010. "Inattentive Professional Forecasters," 2010 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
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  17. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  18. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  19. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
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