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Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth

  • Clements, Michael P

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. JEL classification: C53

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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 995.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:995
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