IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model

  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Sheng, Xuguang

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: (i) the initial prior beliefs, (ii) the weights attached on priors, and (iii) interpreting public information. The fixed-target, multi-horizon, cross-country feature of the panel data allows us to estimate the relative importance of each component precisely. The first component explains nearly all to 30% of forecast disagreement as the horizon decreases from 24 months to 1 month. This finding firmly establishes the role of initial prior beliefs in generating expectation stickiness. We find the second component to have barely any effect on the evolution of forecast disagreement among experts. The importance of the third component increases from almost nothing to 70% as the horizon gets shorter via its interaction with the quality of the incoming news. We propose a new test of forecast efficiency in the context of Bayesian information processing and find significant heterogeneity in the nature of inefficiency across horizons and countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-4076(08)00021-3
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 144 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 325-340

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:144:y:2008:i:2:p:325-340
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
  2. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
  3. Yang, Kun & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Does the prediction horizon matter for the forward premium anomaly? Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 255-260, November.
  4. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
  7. Eugene Kandel & Ben-Zion Zilberfarb, 1999. "Differential Interpretation Of Information In Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 217-226, May.
  8. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
  9. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178.
  10. R. Aumann, 2010. "Correlated Equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian Rationality," Levine's Bibliography 513, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2111, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-68, December.
  13. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  14. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
  15. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2007. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 48, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  16. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-74, November.
  17. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-36, May/June.
  18. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 462, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  19. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. Mankiw, N Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)," CEPR Discussion Papers 5521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
  23. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  24. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  25. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-40, June.
  26. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
  27. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-48, May.
  28. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  29. Clements, Michael P & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Robust Evaluation of Fixed-Event Forecast Rationality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 285-95, July.
  30. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
  31. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  32. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
  33. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  34. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  35. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  36. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 361, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  38. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  39. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  40. Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
  41. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  42. Granger, Clive W.J., 2007. "Forecasting--looking back and forward: Paper to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Econometrics Institute at the Erasmus University, Rotterdam," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 3-13, May.
  43. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  45. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
  46. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
  48. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W & Yetman, James, 2001. "Testing for Forecast Consensus," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 34-43, January.
  50. H. Baltagi, Badi & Heun Song, Seuck & Cheol Jung, Byoung, 2001. "The unbalanced nested error component regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 357-381, April.
  51. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  52. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  53. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  54. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  55. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
  56. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  57. Zellner, Arnold, 2002. "Information processing and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 41-50, March.
  58. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:144:y:2008:i:2:p:325-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.