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Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns

  • Jeff Dominitz
  • Charles F. Manski

We analyze probabilistic expectations of equity returns elicited in the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999 %uF8182001 and in the Michigan Survey of Consumers in 2002 %uF8182004. Our empirical findings suggest that individuals use interpersonally variable but intrapersonally stable processes to form their expectations. We therefore propose to think of the population as a mixture of expectations types, each forming expectations in a stable but different way. We use our expectations data to learn about the prevalence of several specific types suggested by research in conventional and behavioral finance, but conclude that these types do not adequately explain the diverse expectations held by the population.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (04)
Pages: 352-370

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:3:p:352-370
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  1. Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management.
  2. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  3. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The Equity Premium in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 9525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9614 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
  7. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2002. "Behavior in a dynamic decision problem: An analysis of experimental evidence using a bayesian type classification algorithm," Experimental 0211001, EconWPA.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  10. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  11. Mayshar, Joram, 1983. "On Divergence of Opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 114-28, March.
  12. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
  13. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
  14. Morris, Stephen, 1995. "The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 227-253, October.
  15. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1105-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  17. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
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