Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations
We have collected data on the one-year-ahead income expectations of members of American households in our Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE), a module of a national continuous telephone survey conducted at the University of Wisconsin. The income-expectations questions take this form: "What do you think is the percent chance (or what are the chances out of 100) that your total household income, before taxes, will be less than Y over the next 12 months?" We use the responses to a sequence of such questions posed for different income thresholds Y to estimate each respondent's subjective probability distribution for next year's household income. We use the estimates to study the cross- sectional variation in income expectations one year into the future.
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- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992.
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in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Universities-National Bureau, 1960. "The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-1.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS," NBER Working Papers 4560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
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