IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts


  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Teigland, Christie
  • Zaporowski, Mark


The interst rate effects of the first four moments of the subjective probability distribution of inflation forecasts from the ASA-NBER survey are examined over the period 1968:4-1985:4. Using Tre asury bill yields as the nominal rate variable in the context of a re duced form Fisher equation, the authors find that inflation uncertain ty, as measured by the average variance of the probability distributi ons of inflation forecasts, to be insignificant. However, the average skewness and kurtosis variables which result from these probability distributions do significantly affect interest rates. They interpret these effects as accounting for the level of risk or uncertainty abou t future inflation. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-248, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:20:y:1988:i:2:p:233-48

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:20:y:1988:i:2:p:233-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.