IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eee/ecofch/1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Forecasting with Breaks

In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Clements, Michael P.
  • Hendry, David F.

Abstract

A structural break is viewed as a permanent change in the parameter vector of a model. Using taxonomies of all sources of forecast errors for both conditional mean and conditional variance processes, we consider the impacts of breaks and their relevance in forecasting models: (a) where the breaks occur after forecasts are announced; and (b) where they occur in-sample and hence pre-forecasting. The impact on forecasts depends on which features of the models are non-constant. Different models and methods are shown to fare differently in the face of breaks. While structural breaks induce an instability in some parameters of a particular model, the consequences for forecasting are specific to the type of break and form of model. We present a detailed analysis for cointegrated VARs, given the popularity of such models in econometrics. We also consider the detection of breaks, and how to handle breaks in a forecasting context, including ad hoc forecasting devices and the choice of the estimation period. Finally, we contrast the impact of structural break non-constancies with non-constancies due to non-linearity. The main focus is on macro-economic, rather than finance, data, and on forecast biases, rather than higher moments. Nevertheless, we show the relevance of some of the key results for variance processes. An empirical exercise `forecasts' UK unemployment after three major historical crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 605-657, Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofch:1-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7P5J-4JSMTWJ-H/2/e17d009c73049240317e03f537ebebdd
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B0 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofch:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookseriesdescription.cws_home/BS_HE/description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookseriesdescription.cws_home/BS_HE/description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.