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Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective

  • S. Boragan Aruoba
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Jeremy Nalewaik
  • Frank Schorfheide
  • Dongho Song

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. We compare GDPC to GDPE and GDPI , with particular attention to behavior over the business cycle. We discuss several variations and extensions.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17421.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17421.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Publication status: published as "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," in X. Chen and N. Swanson (eds.), Recent Advances and Future Directions in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis: Essays in Honor of Halbert L. White Jr., Springer, 1- 26, 2012. With B. Aruoba, J. Nalewaik, F. Schorfheide and D. Song,
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17421
Note: AP EFG IFM
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  3. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
  4. S. Boraǧan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective," NBER Working Papers 18954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy Nalewaik, 2010. "News, Noise, and Estimates of the "True" Unobserved State of the Economy," BEA Working Papers 0068, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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