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Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

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Listed:
  • S. Boraǧan Aruoba
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Jeremy Nalewaik
  • Frank Schorfheide
  • Dongho Song

Abstract

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Boraǧan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective," NBER Working Papers 18954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18954
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2011. "Is GDP or GDI a better measure of output? A statistical approach," BEA Working Papers 0076, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
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    4. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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