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GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix

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Abstract

We exploit the information in the successive vintages of gross domestic expenditure (GDE) and gross domestic income (GDI) from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved, timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking their monthly release calendar seriously. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. The estimated parameters of our dynamic state-space model suggest that comprehensive revisions have not changed the long-run growth rate of U.S. GDP.

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  • Khalid Abdalla & Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Martín Almuzara & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix," Staff Reports 1027, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:94635
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; comprehensive revisions; signal extractions; U.S. aggregate output; vintages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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