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GDP Revisions: Measurement and Implications

Author

Listed:
  • James Bishop

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Troy Gill

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • David Lancaster

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Gauging economic conditions in real time is challenging, in part because economic data are difficult to measure and subject to subsequent revision as more information becomes available. This article investigates the pattern and size of revisions to real gross domestic product (GDP) over the past decade or so. Revisions to early estimates of GDP can be large and, over the past 15 years, have tended to increase measured growth, although the extent of revision is in line with international experience. This article also examines the feasibility of adjusting real-time estimates of GDP for apparent patterns in revisions, predicting future revisions and calculating confidence intervals around the historical data. The uncertainty around real-time GDP estimates highlights the importance of monitoring a wide range of information when assessing current economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bishop & Troy Gill & David Lancaster, 2013. "GDP Revisions: Measurement and Implications," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 11-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:mar2013-02
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/mar/pdf/bu-0313-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy J. Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective," Working Papers 11-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    2. Christopher Kent, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 85-88, March.
    3. Daniel Rees & David Lancaster & Richard Finlay, 2014. "A State-space Approach to Australian GDP Measurement," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Fátima Cardoso, 2023. "From first to last: the National Accounts revisions," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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