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ifo Konjunkturprognose 2013/2014: Deutsche Konjunkturlokomotive kommt unter Dampf

Author

Listed:
  • Steffen Henzel
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Tim Oliver Berg
  • Christian Breuer
  • Kai Carstensen
  • Christian Grimme
  • Oliver Hülsewig
  • Atanas Hristov
  • Nikolay Hristov
  • Michael Kleemann
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Johanna Garnitz
  • Elisabeth Wieland
  • Anna Wolf
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Peter Zorn

Abstract

Am 17. Dezember 2013 stellte das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für die Jahre 2013 und 2014 vor. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Deutschland wird sich im kommenden Jahr beschleunigen. Darauf deutet das ifo Geschäftsklima hin, das in den vergangenen Monaten eine deutliche Aufwärtstendenz gezeigt hat. Auch bessert sich das weltwirtschaftliche Umfeld. Die binnenwirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen sind ebenfalls günstig. Die Unsicherheit bei den Unternehmen ist gesunken, und für die Anleger bleibt sie bei einer Auslandsanlage hinreichend hoch, um das Interesse an einer vergleichsweise sicheren Investition in Deutschland aufrechtzuerhalten. Die Einkommensperspektiven der privaten Haushalte sind gut. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird die konjunkturelle Expansion voraussichtlich von der Binnenwirtschaft getragen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2014 dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt, bei einem Unsicherheitsintervall (2/3 Wahrscheinlichkeit) von 0,8% bis 3,0%, daher um 1,9% zunehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Oliver Hülsewig & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister &, 2013. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2013/2014: Deutsche Konjunkturlokomotive kommt unter Dampf," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(24), pages 20-67, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:24:p:20-67
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    2. Steffen Henzel & Sebastian Rast, 2013. "Prognoseeigenschaften von Indikatoren zur Vorhersage des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(17), pages 39-46, September.
    3. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 4628, CESifo.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    5. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arno Städtler, 2014. "Investitionen klar auf Wachstumskurs – Leasingklima stark verbessert," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(06), pages 36-39, March.
    2. Evgenia Kudymowa & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Die Herstellung von Druckerzeugnissen; Vervielfältigung von bespielten Ton-, Bild- und Datenträgern," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(06), pages 31-35, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General

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