IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVPVAR models with stochastic volatility

  • Ikram Jebabli
  • Mohamed Arouri
  • Frédéric Teulon

Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shocks transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new Time Varying Parameter VAR model (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that there is volatility spillover from crude oil and international stock markets to food markets. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ipag.fr/wp-content/uploads/recherche/WP/IPAG_WP_2014_209.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-209.

as
in new window

Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-209
Contact details of provider: Postal: 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris
Phone: 33 1 53 63 36 00
Web page: http://www.ipag.fr

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  2. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  6. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4333, The World Bank.
  7. Christophe Gouel & Sébastien Jean, 2015. "Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country," Working Papers 274047, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  8. Jouchi Nakajima & Munehisa Kasuya & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  9. Yuan-Hung Hsu Ku & Ho-Chyuan Chen & Kuang-Hua Chen, 2007. "On the application of the dynamic conditional correlation model in estimating optimal time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 503-509.
  10. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Food, energy and environment: Is bioenergy the missing link?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 571-580, October.
  11. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
  12. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
  13. Chen, Shu-Ling & Jackson, John D. & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Resiandini, Pramesti, 2012. "What Drives Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 40711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
  15. Q. Farooq Akram, 2008. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Working Paper 2008/12, Norges Bank.
  16. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  17. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
  18. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
  19. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
  20. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
  23. Gouel, Christophe, 2013. "Optimal food price stabilisation policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-134.
  24. Thompson, Wyatt & Meyer, Seth & Westhoff, Pat, 2009. "How does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 745-749, February.
  25. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  26. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/14980, Paris Dauphine University.
  27. Toshiaki Watanabe, 2004. "A multi-move sampler for estimating non-Gaussian time series models: Comments on Shephard & Pitt (1997)," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(1), pages 246-248, March.
  28. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  29. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  30. Jouchi Nakajima & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with the Ordering of Variables for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-196, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  31. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 10/129, International Monetary Fund.
  32. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
  33. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
  34. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
  35. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
  36. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
  37. Balcombe, Kelvin, 2009. "The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices," MPRA Paper 24819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Wright, Brian, 2001. "Storage and price stabilization," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 817-861 Elsevier.
  39. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  40. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Optimal food price stabilisation policy," Working Papers 173067, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  41. Gardner, Bruce, 1979. "Robust Stabilization Policies for International Commodity Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 169-72, May.
  42. Ng, Serena, 2006. "Testing Cross-Section Correlation in Panel Data Using Spacings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 12-23, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Schumacher)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.