Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management
In this article we take a recent generalized VAR-GARCH approach to examine the extent of volatility transmission between oil and stock markets in Europe and the United States at the sector-level. The empirical model is advantageous in that it typically allows simultaneous shock transmission in the conditional returns and volatilities. Insofar as volatility transmission across oil and stock sector markets is a crucial element for portfolio designs and risk management, we also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil-stock portfolio holdings with respect to the results. Our findings point to the existence of significant volatility spillover between oil and sector stock returns. However, the spillover is usually unidirectional from oil markets to stock markets in Europe, but bidirectional in the United States. Our back-testing procedures, finally, suggest that taking the cross-market volatility spillovers estimated from the VAR-GARCH models often leads to diversification benefits and hedging effectiveness better than those of commonly used multivariate volatility models such as the CCC-GARCH of Bollerslev (1990), the diagonal BEKK-GARCH of Engle and Kroner (1995) and the DCC-GARCH of Engle (2002).
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
- M. Martin Boyer & Didier Filion, 2004.
"Common and Fundamental Factors in Stock Returns of Canadian Oil and Gas Companies,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
- Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T., 2009. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 95-100, June.
- Cameron, Ken & Schnusenberg, Oliver, 2009. "Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq: An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 375-381, May.
- Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006.
"Oil price risk and emerging stock markets,"
Global Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
- Mohan Nandha & Robert Brooks, 2009. "Oil prices and transport sector returns: an international analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, November.
- Hutchison, Michael M., 1993.
"Structural change and the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: empirical evidence from the United States and Japan,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 587-606, December.
- Michael M. Hutchison, 1992. "Structural change and the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: empirical evidence from the United States and Japan," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001.
"Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010.
"Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thanh Huong Dinh, 2010. "Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries," Working Papers hal-00507822, HAL.
- Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael & Thompson, Mark A., 2010.
"Precious metals-exchange rate volatility transmissions and hedging strategies,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-647, October.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer & Mark A. Thompson, 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-684, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer & Mark A. Thompson, 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CARF F-Series CARF-F-187, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Yuan, Y. & McAleer, M.J. & Thompson, M.A., 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Geman, Hélyette & Kharoubi, Cécile, 2008. "WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2553-2559, December.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010.
"Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade,"
- Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
- Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Transmit to Stock Markets?," Working Paper Series 2006:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
- Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 316-321, March.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009.
"Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?,"
0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
- Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working papers 2008-51, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Shambora, William E. & Rossiter, Rosemary, 2007. "Are there exploitable inefficiencies in the futures market for oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 18-27, January.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998.
"Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
- Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
- Yuan-Hung Hsu Ku & Ho-Chyuan Chen & Kuang-Hua Chen, 2007. "On the application of the dynamic conditional correlation model in estimating optimal time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 503-509.
- Hassan, Syed Aun & Malik, Farooq, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH modeling of sector volatility transmission," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 470-480, July.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael, 2009.
"Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 829-842, August.
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Yuan, Y. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:7:p:1387-1405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.