IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v32y2008i12p2553-2559.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect

Author

Listed:
  • Geman, Hélyette
  • Kharoubi, Cécile

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyze the diversification effect brought by crude oil Futures contracts, the most liquid commodity Futures, into a portfolio of stocks. The studies that have documented the very low- and essentially negative-correlations between commodities and equities typically rely on normally distributed returns, which is not the case for crude oil Futures and stocks indexes. Moreover, the particular time-to-maturity chosen for the Future contract used as an investment vehicle is an important matter that needs to be addressed, in presence of forward curves switching between backwardation and contango shapes. Our goal in this paper is twofold: (a) we introduce copula functions to have a better representation of the dependence structure of oil Futures with equity indexes; (b) using this copula representation, we are able to analyze in a precise manner the "maturity effect" in the choice of crude oil Future contract with respect to its diversification benefits. Our finding is that, in the case of distant maturities Futures, e.g., 18 months, the negative correlation effect is more pronounced whether stock prices increase or decrease. This property has the merit to avoid the hurdles of a frequent roll over while being quite desirable in the current trendless equity markets. Empirical evidence is exhibited on a database comprising the NYMEX WTI crude oil Futures and S&P 500 index over a 15 year-time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Geman, Hélyette & Kharoubi, Cécile, 2008. "WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2553-2559, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:2553-2559
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(08)00089-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levy, Haim & Sarnat, Marshall, 1970. "International Diversification of Investment Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 668-675, September.
    2. Jean-David FERMANIAN & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Copulas for Time Series," FAME Research Paper Series rp57, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    3. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Energy Commodity Prices : Is Mean-reversion Dead ?," Post-Print halshs-00144306, HAL.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stevenson, Richard A & Bear, Robert M, 1970. "Commodity Futures: Trends or Random Walks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 65-81, March.
    6. Franklin R. Edwards & Michael S. Canter, 1995. "The Collapse Of Metallgesellschaft: Unhedgeable Risks, Poor Hedging Strategy, Or Just Bad Luck?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 86-105, March.
    7. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    8. Thierry Ane & Cecile Kharoubi, 2003. "Dependence Structure and Risk Measure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 411-438, July.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1442 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 98-134.
    4. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    5. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Gambet, Jean-Benoît & Bouverot, Julien, 2008. "Robust outlier detection for Asia-Pacific stock index returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 326-343, October.
    6. Graham, Michael & Kiviaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2012. "Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-47.
    7. Grundke, Peter & Polle, Simone, 2012. "Crisis and risk dependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 518-528.
    8. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
    9. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
    10. Heung-Joo Cha & Thadavillil Jithendranathan, 2009. "Time-varying correlations and optimal allocation in emerging market equities for the US investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 172-187.
    11. Borgsen, Sina & Glaser, Markus, 2005. "Diversifikationseffekte durch small und mid caps? : Eine empirische Untersuchung basierend auf europäischen Aktienindizes," Papers 05-10, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    12. Kahl, Douglas R. & Stevens, Jerry L., 2009. "Ex ante performance from ex post models of global equity market correlations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 248-259.
    13. Zhichao Zhang & Li Ding & Fan Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2015. "Optimal Currency Composition for China's Foreign Reserves: A Copula Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    14. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Alcock, Jamie & Faff, Robert & Brailsford, Timothy, 2013. "Canonical vine copulas in the context of modern portfolio management: Are they worth it?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3085-3099.
    15. Borgsen, Sina & Glaser, Markus, 2005. "Diversifikationseffekte durch Small und Mid Caps?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-10, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    16. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    17. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chi-Hung & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Industry co-movements of American depository receipts: Evidences from the copula approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 301-314.
    18. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    19. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    20. Tamara Teplova & Mikova Evgeniia & Qaiser Munir & Nataliya Pivnitskaya, 2023. "Black-Litterman model with copula-based views in mean-CVaR portfolio optimization framework with weight constraints," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 515-535, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:2553-2559. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.