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Does Oil Price Uncertainty Transmit to Stock Markets?


  • Ågren, Martin

    (Department of Economics)


The paper presents an empirical study of volatility spillover from oil prices to stock markets within an asymmetric BEKK model. Using weekly data on the aggregate stock markets of Japan, Norway, Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S., strong evidence of volatility spillover is found for all stock markets but the Swedish one, where only weak evidence is found. News impact surfaces show that, although statistically significant, the volatility spillovers are quantitatively small. The stock market’s own shocks, which are related to other factors of uncertainty than the oil price, are more prominent than oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Transmit to Stock Markets?," Working Paper Series 2006:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_023

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    2. Khan, Salman, 2010. "Crude Oil Price shocks to Emerging Markets: Evaluating the BRICs Case," MPRA Paper 22978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ching-Chun Wei & Chung-Hsuan Chen, 2014. "Does WTI Oil Price Returns Volatility Spillover to the Exchange Rate and Stock Index in the US?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 189-197.
    4. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Intraday volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    6. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 611-617.
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Modeling the spillovers between stock market and money market in Nigeria," Working Papers 023, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    8. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil Futures Returns and Oil Company Stocks Return," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-639, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    11. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2015. "Modeling oil price–US stock nexus: A VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-12.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:368-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:02:n:s2010495217500075 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ching-Chun Wei & Ya-Ling Lin, 2016. "Carbon Future Price Return, Oil Future Price Return and Stock Index Future Price Return in the U.S," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 655-662.
    17. Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Prospect Theory and Higher Moments," Working Paper Series 2006:24, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Volatility spillover; multivariate GARCH; BEKK; oil shocks; stock market;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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