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The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach

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  • Aubrey Poon

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine whether the propagation and transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy differed during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/1998 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/2008. The methodology employs a time-varying vector autoregression framework. The primary result is that despite having no evidence of time-variation within the propagation mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy the average contribution of a monetary policy shock to the variability of each macroeconomic variable: real GDP, inflation and the nominal effective exchange rate, differs between the two crises. This finding suggests that despite the propagation mechanism being relatively constant, Malaysia’s monetary policy transmission mechanism evolves over time. We believe that the main mechanism driving this evolution is the time-variation in the variance–covariance matrix of the shocks of the model, not the coefficients. We also find some evidence that the implementation of capital controls reduced the influenceability of monetary policy on the Malaysian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1280-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1280-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdhut Deheri, 2021. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Inflation in India: A Time-varying Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1603-1614.
    2. Soohyeon Kim & Jungho Baek & Eunnyeong Heo, 2020. "Crude oil inventories: The two faces of Janus?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1003-1018, August.
    3. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Malaysia; Monetary policy; Time-varying; Sign restrictions; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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