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Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic

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We investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the 1996-2010 period by employing a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to exchange rate or interest rate shocks changes over time, with a focus on the period of the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, we augment the estimated system with a lending rate and credit growth to shed light on the relative importance of financial shocks for the macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that output and prices have become increasingly responsive to monetary policy shocks, probably reflecting financial sector deepening, more persistent monetary policy shocks, and overall economic development associated with disinflation. On the other hand, exchange rate pass-through has weakened somewhat over time, suggesting improved credibility of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic with anchored inflation expectations. We find that credit shocks had a more sizeable impact on output and prices during the period of bank restructuring with difficult access to credit. In general, our results show that financial shocks are less important for the aggregate economy in an environment of a stable financial system.

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  • Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_11
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    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 363-390.
    4. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission; Sign restrictions; Time-varying parameters;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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