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Time-varying fiscal policy in the U.S

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  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira
  • Artur Silva Lopes

Abstract

To investigate time heterogeneity in the e¤ects of fiscal policy in the U.S., we use a non-recursive, Blanchard and Perotti-like structural VAR with time-varying parameters, estimated through Bayesian simulation over the 1965:2-2009:2 period. Our evidence suggests that fiscal policy has lost some capacity to stimulate output but that this trend is more pronounced for taxes net of transfers than for government expenditure, whose e¤ectiveness declines only slightly. Fiscal multipliers keep conventional signs throughout. An investigation of changes in ?scal policy conduct indicates an increase in the countercyclical activism of net taxes over time, which appears to have reached a maximum during the 2008-09 recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Artur Silva Lopes, 2010. "Time-varying fiscal policy in the U.S," Working Papers w201021, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "Electricity supply shocks and economic growth across the US states: evidence from a time-varying Bayesian panel VAR model, aggregate and disaggregate energy sources," MPRA Paper 84954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    4. Ioannis Praggidis & Periklis Gogas & Vasilios Plakandaras & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and asymmetric effects: a comparative analysis," Papers 1312.2693, arXiv.org.
    5. Jacopo Cimadomo & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016. "Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers in Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1276-1290, November.
    6. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2013. "Asymmetric Fiscal Policy Shocks," MPRA Paper 46680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    8. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66441 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Berg Tim Oliver, 2015. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 13-46, April.
    11. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Hicham BADDI & Kamal LAHLOU, 2013. "The Analysis of Fiscal Policy Shocks’ Transmission in Morocco," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(10), pages 1-12, October.
    14. Dybowski, T. Philipp, 2015. "Tracing the Role of Foresight on the Effects of U.S. Tax Policy: Evidence from a Time-Varying SVAR," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Ricardo Silva & Vitor Manuel Carvalho & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2013. "How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area," FEP Working Papers 500, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions across Time and Space," CAMA Working Papers 2012-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2012. "Revisiting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in the US, measured on the basis of structural VARs," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR," Working Paper Series 1636, European Central Bank.
    20. Philipp Adämmer & T. Philipp Dybowski, 2016. "Committing to Fiscal Policy: The Influence of the U.S. President on Consumer Confidence and Output," CQE Working Papers 5216, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    21. Schalck, Christophe, 2012. "Investigating heterogeneity in European fiscal behaviours," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 383-390.
    22. Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Japanese Fiscal Policy under the Zero Lower Bound of Nominal Interest Rates: Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregression," Discussion Paper Series 627, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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