Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy
Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit shocks are distinguished in our paper: a risk assessment and a policy shock. Our main findings are the following. First, we demonstrate that both credit supply and macroeconomic shocks explain the variance of endogenous variables at roughly similar order of magnitude. Second, it is shown that credit supply shocks do not have a dominant role in the decline of the Hungarian economy over the crisis period that started in 2008, although their contribution was non-negligible. Third, the importance of unidentified shocks increased in the crisis period.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balázs Vonnák, 2010.
"Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland,"
MNB Working Papers
2010/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Vonnák Balázs, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351.
- Balázs Vonnák, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In The Czech Republic, Hungary And Poland," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351, August.
- Thomas Helbling & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010.
"Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective,"
IMF Working Papers
10/261, International Monetary Fund.
- Zoltán M. Jakab & Viktor Várpalotai & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "How does monetary policy affect aggregate demand? A multimodel approach for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2006/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010.
"Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
- Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997.
"Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
- Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Zoltán Reppa, 2009. "A joint macroeconomic-yield curve model for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2009/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Jørn Inge Halvorsen & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "Are bank lending shocks important for economic fluctuations?," Working Paper 2009/27, Norges Bank.
- Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2011/7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lorant Kaszab)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.