The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy
Historical experience shows that disruptions in credit markets can have a material impact on activity and inflation. However, it is hard to measure such effects owing to the difficulty in isolating credit supply shocks. This paper employs survey data to identify the impact of credit supply shocks in Australia over the past three decades, using a structural vector autoregression approach. We estimate that a one standard deviation shock to the balance of firms reporting difficulty obtaining finance (a 'credit supply shock') reduces Australian GDP by almost ⅓ per cent after one year and gross national expenditure by nearly Â½ per cent. The effect on business credit is larger and more persistent, with credit declining by nearly 1 per cent relative to its baseline after two and a half years. During the global financial crisis, the cumulative impact of credit supply shocks is estimated to have contributed to a reduction in GDP of 1 per cent (in mid 2009). While credit supply shocks had a notable effect on GDP during the global financial crisis, this credit event appears to have been shorter and sharper than that experienced during the period of financial instability in the early 1990s. Consistent with a 'credit channel' of monetary policy transmission, an unexpected tightening of monetary policy results in a significant increase in the balance of firms reporting difficulty obtaining finance. We also find effects consistent with a financial accelerator mechanism, whereby an improvement in balance sheets results in easier credit conditions and higher GDP and business credit. Altogether, these results suggest that credit market developments have been an integral aspect of the business cycle in Australia since financial deregulation in the 1980s.
|Date of creation:||May 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rba.gov.au/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rba.gov.au/forms/rdp-order-form/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010.
"Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective,"
IMF Working Papers
10/261, International Monetary Fund.
- Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014.
"Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
- Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008.
"Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy,"
NCER Working Paper Series
21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997.
"The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective,"
Economics Working Papers
356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2011. "Assessing Some Models of the Impact of Financial Stress upon Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Virginia Queijo von Heideken, 2009. "How Important are Financial Frictions in the United States and the Euro Area?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 567-596, 09.
- Tomoya Suzuki, 2004. "Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 145-156, 06.
- Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2012-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.