IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2017-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macro-financial effects of portfolio flows: Malaysia’s experience

Author

Listed:
  • Tng Boon Hwa
  • Mala Raghavan
  • Teh Tian Huey

Abstract

This paper studies the causes and effects of portfolio flows in Malaysia. We use Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to analyse the interactions among portfolio flows, global and domestic macro and financial variables within a common empirical framework. Three findings emerge: First, the SVAR estimations show that global and domestic factors play transitory roles in driving Malaysia’s net portfolio flows. A subsample analysis from the ARDL model highlights that domestic factors play an increasingly important role in attracting portfolio inflows as Malaysia liberalised its exchange rate regime and capital flow restrictions. Second, higher net portfolio flows lead to exchange rate appreciation, higher equity prices and credit expansion. The effects are visible in the exchange rate, followed by equity prices and credit. Third, in the transmission of higher portfolio flows to growth, the positive effects from higher equity prices and credit are partially offset by the dampening effect from the appreciating exchange rate on output. While the contribution of portfolio flow’s effects on output variance is low, the impulse responses of output does change to portfolio flow shocks, suggesting that portfolio flows are tail risks to growth and that the risks magnify when the flows are large and volatile.

Suggested Citation

  • Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macro-financial effects of portfolio flows: Malaysia’s experience," CAMA Working Papers 2017-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-05/35_2017_hwa_raghavan_huey.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Financial Openness and Growth: Short‐run Gain, Long‐run Pain?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 69-95, February.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    4. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    5. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    6. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 14691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "Foreign Resource Inflows, Saving, and Growth," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-099, University of California at Berkeley.
    10. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    11. Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 112-138, April.
    13. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    16. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    17. Choong, Chee-Keong & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Yusop, Zulkornain & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2010. "Private capital flows, stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 107-117, March.
    18. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    19. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    21. Chris Becker, 2016. "Living with Volatilities: Capital Flows and Policy Implications for SEACEN Central Banks," Working Papers wp13, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    22. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    23. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    24. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    25. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 63-111, April.
    26. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-2.
    27. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    28. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
    29. Brana, Sophie & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Prat, Stéphanie, 2012. "Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: A PVAR approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 256-267.
    30. Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias & Ulloa, Barbara, 2016. "What drives international portfolio flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-72.
    31. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 187-196, February.
    32. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Thanoon, Marwan Abdul-Malik, 2006. "Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 70-83.
    33. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.
    35. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    36. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    37. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    38. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. David Jacobs & Vanessa Rayner, 2012. "The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    40. Mala Raghavan & Paramsothy Silvapulle & George Athanasopoulos, 2012. "Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3841-3856, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mara, Mirza Yuniar Isnaeni & Purwanto, Nur M.Adhi & Kurniati, Ina Nurmalia & Fauziah, Nanda Rizki & Aqmaliyah, Euis, 2021. "Capital flow and banking credit in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 298-310.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    4. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    5. Heather Ba & William K. Winecoff, 2024. "American financial hegemony, global capital cycles, and the macroeconomic growth environment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 334-372, March.
    6. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    7. Saktinil Roy & David M. Kemme, 2022. "Are capital inflow bonanzas a common precursor to banking crises? A categorical data analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3192-3223, October.
    8. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    9. Vivek Arora & Karl Habermeier & Jonathan D. Ostry & Rhoda Weeks-Brown, 2013. "La liberalización y el manejo de los flujos de capital: una visión institucional," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 205-255, January-J.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    12. Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2016. "Integration of financial markets, financial development and growth: Is Africa different?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 43-59.
    13. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Capital inflows, equity issuance activity, and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    14. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. De,Supriyo & Mohapatra,Sanket & Ratha,Dilip K., 2020. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Relative Risk Ratings, and Private Capital Flows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9401, The World Bank.
    16. Ali, Amjad & Ehsan, Rehan & Audi, Marc & Hamadeh, Hani Fayad, 2022. "Does Globalization Promote Financial Integration in South Asian Economies? Unveiling the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Performance in Internationalization," MPRA Paper 115304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    19. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, July.
    20. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Portfolio Flows; Open Economy; Financial Economics; SVAR Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.