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Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011

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  • Kim Abildgren

Abstract

We examine the real effects of credit shocks using a series of structural vector autoregressive models estimated on the basis on a new quarterly data set for Denmark spanning the past 90 years or so. We find no evidence of real macroeconomic effects from supply shocks to credit from commercial/savings banks in the periods 1922-1938 and 1981-2011 even though these periods contained several cases of severe banking crises. We attribute these findings to the special role played by bond-financed mortgage banks in the Danish financial system combined with comprehensive government interventions to safeguard financial stability during times of banking crises. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

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  • Kim Abildgren, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 490-510, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:490-510
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    3. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    4. White, Eugene Nelson, 1984. "A Reinterpretation of the Banking Crisis of 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 119-138, March.
    5. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    7. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    8. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 300-309, March.
    9. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010," Working Paper Series 1458, European Central Bank.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Abou-Zeinab , Ali, 2013. "Patterns of Bank Credit Allocation and Economic Growth: The Case of Denmark, 1736-2012," Lund Papers in Economic History 131, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    3. Scheufele, Rolf & Bäurle, Gregor, 2015. "Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112931, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    5. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    6. Houssa Romain & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4281, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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