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Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?

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  • Breitenlechner, Max
  • Scharler, Johann

Abstract

We evaluate contributions of exogenous loan supply shocks to output dynamics during the Great Depression. Based on a structural VAR, we impose sign restrictions to identify loan supply shocks in addition to standard macroeconomic shocks. Our results indicate that the banking panics that occurred in the early 1930s were associated with negative loan supply shocks, supporting the view that disruptions in financial intermediation contributed significantly to the severity of the Great Depression.

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  • Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2017. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168208, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168208
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    1. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Taylor, Bryan & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2022. "Financial factors and the propagation of the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 577-594.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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