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Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis

Author

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  • Bijsterbosch, Martin
  • Falagiarda, Matteo

Abstract

This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E51

Suggested Citation

  • Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141714
    Note: 339019
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1714.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    3. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2014. "Can Europe recover without credit?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 36(2), pages 129-149, June.
    5. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
    7. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    8. Gianni De Nicolò & Marcella Lucchetta, 2011. "Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy," NBER Chapters, in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 113-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
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    12. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    13. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    15. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    16. Kim Abildgren, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 490-510, November.
    17. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4281, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2014. "Financial conditions index and credit supply shocks for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1644, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Álvarez & Alejandro Fernández & Joaquín García-Cabo & Diana Posada, 2019. "Liquidity Funding Shocks: the Role of Banks’ Funding Mix," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 167-190, June.
    2. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi & Illner, Julian, 2014. "Overleveraging in the banking sector: Evidence from Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-066, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Leo de Haan & Jan Willem van den End & Philip Vermeulen, 2017. "Lenders on the storm of wholesale funding shocks: saved by the central bank?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4679-4703, October.
    4. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    5. Gregor, Jiří & Melecký, Martin, 2018. "The pass-through of monetary policy rate to lending rates: The role of macro-financial factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-88.
    6. Amine Ben Amar, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission in a Dual Banking System: Further Insights from TVP-VAR Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2317-2332.
    7. Donal Smith, 2016. "The International Impact of Financial Shocks: A Global VAR and Connectedness Measures Approach," Discussion Papers 16/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    9. Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit supply shocks; euro area; sign restrictions; TVP-VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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