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Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?

Author

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  • Barnett, Alina

    () (Bank of England)

  • Thomas, Ryland

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit demand and supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during both the recent financial crisis and the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural vector autoregression analysis to identify separate credit demand and supply shocks in addition to the standard macroeconomic shocks that are typically analysed in this framework. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the crisis and between a third and a half of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks appear to behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks because they cause output and inflation to move in opposite directions. This may be because credit supply shocks affect potential supply in the economy or because they have a significant exchange rate effect. The results appear robust to different identifying assumptions. The main sensitivity appears to be when spreads are treated as a non-stationary variable and long-run restrictions are placed on the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0482
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 51-71.
    2. Franklin, Jeremy & Rostom, May & Thwaites, Gregory, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 557, Bank of England.
    3. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    4. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, pages 5-33.
    5. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2014. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing," Bank of England working papers 494, Bank of England.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Livia, Chitu & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 93-115.
    8. Cloyne, James & Thomas, Ryland & Tuckett, Alex & Wills, Samuel, 2015. "A sectoral framework for analyzing money, credit and unconventional monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 556, Bank of England.
    9. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 51-71.
    10. Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
    11. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, pages 167-179.
    12. Nicholas Oulton, 2015. "Space-Time (In)Consistency in the National Accounts: Causes and Cures," CEP Discussion Papers dp1349, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Butt, Nick & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "Credit spreads: capturing credit conditions facing households and firms," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, pages 137-148.
    14. Clavero, Borja, 2017. "A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit," MPRA Paper 76657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hackworth, Christopher & Radia, Amar & Roberts, Nyssa, 2013. "Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, pages 336-350.
    16. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply shocks; Financial and macro linkages; Bayesian SVARs; sign restrictions; long-run restrictions;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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