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Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?

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  • Alina Barnett
  • Ryland Thomas

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural VAR analysis to identify credit supply shocks separately from standard macroeconomic shocks. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the recent financial crisis and 1/3 – 1/2 of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2014. "Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 60-89, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:82:y:2014:i:s1:p:60-89
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bratsiotis, George J. & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Precautionary liquidity shocks, excess reserves and business cycles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    4. Büyükbaşaran, Tayyar & Karasoy-Can, Gökçe & Küçük, Hande, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of bank lending in an emerging economy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the U.K," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117351, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Do bank liquidity shocks hamper firms’ innovation?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116931, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Do bank liquidity shocks hamper firms’ innovation?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2024. "Unravelling the credit market shocks and investment dynamics: A theoretical and empirical perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Olli Palm'en, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics of Financial Shocks," Papers 2006.03301, arXiv.org.
    11. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    12. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2016. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 15-27.
    13. Tölö, Eero & Miettinen, Paavo, 2018. "How do shocks to bank capital affect lending and growth?," Research Discussion Papers 25/2018, Bank of Finland.
    14. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Meeks, Roland, 2017. "Capital regulation and the macroeconomy: Empirical evidence and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 125-141.

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