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Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?

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  • Alina Barnett
  • Ryland Thomas

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural VAR analysis to identify credit supply shocks separately from standard macroeconomic shocks. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the recent financial crisis and 1/3 – 1/2 of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2014. "Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 60-89, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:82:y:2014:i:s1:p:60-89
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/manc.12071
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    Cited by:

    1. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2016. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 15-27.
    2. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    3. Enders, Zeno & Peter, Alexandra, 2015. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113022, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Ana María Chirinos-Leañez & Carolina Pagliacci, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:125-141 is not listed on IDEAS

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