IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2020-15.html

Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper identifies a precautionary banking liquidity shock via a set of sign, zero and forecast variance restrictions imposed. The shock proxies the reluctance of the banking sector to "lend" to the real economy induced by an exogenous change in financial intermediaries' preference for "high" liquid assets. The identified shock has sizeable and state (volatility) dependent effects on the real economy. To understand the transmission of the shock, we develop a DSGE model of financial intermediation with credit and liquidity frictions. The precautionary liquidity shock is shown to work through two channels: it increases the level of reserves and the deposit rate. The former is a balance sheet effect, which reduces the loan-to-deposit ratio. The higher deposit rate affects the intertemporal decisions of households and the cost of borrowing to firms. The overall effect is a downward co-movement in output, consumption, investment and prices, which is amplified the higher are the long-run risks in the economy and the responsiveness of banks to potential risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Bratsiotis, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2020/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2020/15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2020_15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen, 2025. "Event-driven changes in volatility connectedness in global forex markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Phuong Mai Le, Vo & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2022. "Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2020/15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.