IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/86284.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin, Jeremy
  • Rostom, May
  • Thwaites, Gregory

Abstract

This paper uses a large firm-level dataset of UK companies and information on their pre-crisis lending relationships to identify the causal links from changes in credit supply to the real economy following the 2008 financial crisis. Controlling for demand in the product market, we find that the contraction in credit supply reduced labour productivity, wages and the capital intensity of production at the firm level. Firms experiencing adverse credit shocks were also more likely to fail, other things equal. We find that these effects are robust, statistically significant and economically large, but only when instruments based on pre-crisis banking relationships are used. We show that banking relationships were conditionally randomly assigned and were strong predictors of credit supply, such that any bias in our estimates is likely to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin, Jeremy & Rostom, May & Thwaites, Gregory, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86284, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86284
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86284/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arrowsmith, Martin & Griffiths, Martin & Franklin, Jeremy & Wohlmann, Evan & Young, Garry & Gregory, David, 2013. "SME forbearance and its implications for monetary and financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 296-303.
    2. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 698-750.
    3. Samuel Bentolila & Marcel Jansen & Gabriel Jiménez, 2018. "When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 650-695.
    4. Andrew K. Rose & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Financial Protectionism? First Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2127-2149, October.
    5. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    6. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    8. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    9. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    10. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    11. Oliver Levine & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2014. "Finance and Productivity Growth: Firm-level Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Barnett, Alina & Batten, Sandra & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 114-128.
    13. Alina Barnett & Ben Broadbent & Adrian Chiu & Jeremy Franklin & Helen Miller, 2014. "Impaired Capital Reallocation and Productivity," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228(1), pages 35-48, May.
    14. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    15. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    16. Benford, James & Burrows, Oliver, 2013. "Commercial property and financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 48-58.
    17. repec:dgr:kubcen:2013040 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Barnett, Alina & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The productivity puzzle: a firm-level investigation into employment behaviour and resource allocation over the crisis," Bank of England working papers 495, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2019. "Financial constraints on investment: Effects of firm size and the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 441-457.
    2. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Richard Disney & Helen Miller & Thomas Pope, 2018. "Firm-level investment spikes and aggregate investment over the Great Recession," IFS Working Papers W18/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Do bank liquidity shocks hamper firms’ innovation?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Aikman, David & Giese, Julia & Kapadia, Sujit & McLeay, Michael, 2018. "Targeting financial stability: macroprudential or monetary policy?," Bank of England working papers 734, Bank of England.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Bridges, Jonathan & Jackson, Christopher & McGregor, Daisy, 2017. "Down in the slumps: the role of credit in five decades of recessions," Bank of England working papers 659, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franklin, Jeremy & Rostom, May & Thwaites, Gregory, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 557, Bank of England.
    2. Jeremy Franklin & May Rostom & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Banks that Said No: the Impact of Credit Supply on Productivity and Wages," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 149-179, April.
    3. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
    4. Besley, T. & Roland, I. & Van Reenen, J., 2019. "The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2061, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Paul Wachtel, 2016. "Procyclical Capital Regulation and Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 919-956, April.
    6. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2012. "Bank Leverage Shocks and the Macroeconomy: a New Look in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-23, CIRANO.
    7. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2018. "Financial markets, banks’ cost of funding, and firms’ decisions: Lessons from two crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 698-750.
    9. Victoria Ivashina & Luc Laeven & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2020. "Loan types and the bank lending channel," Working Papers 2020, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. Imai, Masami & Takarabe, Seitaro, 2011. "Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 143-156, June.
    11. João Amador & Arne J. Nagengast, 2015. "The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment," Working Papers w201515, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Alexander Raabe & Christiane Kneer, 2019. "Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK," IHEID Working Papers 10-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Rafael Felipe Schiozer & Raquel de Freitas Oliveira, 2014. "Asymmetric Transmission of a Bank Liquidity Shock," Working Papers Series 368, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, 2019. "Monetary policy surprises and employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel," BIS Working Papers 799, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Noth, Felix & Busch, Matias Ossandon, 2017. "Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects : Micro-level evidence from Brazil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Rehbein, Oliver, 2018. "Flooded through the back door: Firm-level effects of banks' lending shifts," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    17. Federico Cingano & Francesco Manaresi & Enrico Sette, 2016. "Does Credit Crunch Investment Down? New Evidence on the Real Effects of the Bank-Lending Channel," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2737-2773.
    18. Schiozer, Rafael F. & Oliveira, Raquel de Freitas, 2016. "Asymmetric transmission of a bank liquidity shock," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 234-246.
    19. Stephan Luck & Thomas Zimmermann, 2018. "Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank M. & Simmler, Martin, 2020. "Firms’ financial and real responses to credit supply shocks: Evidence from firm-bank relationships in Germany," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.