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How much do bank shocks affect investment? Evidence from matched bank-firm loan data

  • Mary Amiti
  • David E. Weinstein

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on the investment decisions of firms. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firms' credit shocks from loan supply shocks, using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for the period 1990 to 2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks, as in Gabaix (2011). As a result, idiosyncratic bank shocks--movements in bank loan supply net of borrower characteristics and general credit conditions--can have large impacts on aggregate loan supply and investment. We show that these idiosyncratic bank shocks explain 40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 604.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:604
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  1. DellAriccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Troubled banks, impaired foreign direct investment: the role of relative access to credit," Working Papers 00-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
  5. Daniel Paravisini, 2008. "Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2161-2193, October.
  6. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
  7. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2006. "The effect of a banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Proceedings 1030, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Masaya Sakuragawa & Yoshitsugu Watanabe, 2009. "Did the Japanese Stock Market Appropriately Price the Takenaka Financial Reform?," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 317-340 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kroszner, Randall S. & Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2007. "Banking crises, financial dependence, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 187-228, April.
  10. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2001. "New evidence on the lending channel," Staff Reports 136, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Amel, Dean & Barnes, Colleen & Panetta, Fabio & Salleo, Carmelo, 2004. "Consolidation and efficiency in the financial sector: A review of the international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2493-2519, October.
  12. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 159-214 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kuttner, Kenneth N & Palia, Darius N, 2002. "Are There Bank Effects in Borrowers' Costs of Funds? Evidence from a Matched Sample of Borrowers and Banks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 559-81, October.
  14. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
  15. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-42, September.
  16. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2010. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," NBER Working Papers 16528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
  18. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Francisco J. Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2014. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 19997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  21. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:1-59 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Gan, Jie, 2007. "Collateral, debt capacity, and corporate investment: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 709-734, September.
  24. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
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