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How much do bank shocks affect investment? Evidence from matched bank-firm loan data

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  • Mary Amiti
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on the investment decisions of firms. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firms' credit shocks from loan supply shocks, using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for the period 1990 to 2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks, as in Gabaix (2011). As a result, idiosyncratic bank shocks--movements in bank loan supply net of borrower characteristics and general credit conditions--can have large impacts on aggregate loan supply and investment. We show that these idiosyncratic bank shocks explain 40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.

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  • Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2013. "How much do bank shocks affect investment? Evidence from matched bank-firm loan data," Staff Reports 604, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:1-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
    3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    4. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    5. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    6. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, June.
    8. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kuttner, Kenneth N & Palia, Darius N, 2002. "Are There Bank Effects in Borrowers' Costs of Funds? Evidence from a Matched Sample of Borrowers and Banks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 559-581, October.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Uchida, Hirofumi & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Ono, Arito & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2015. "Financial shocks, bankruptcy, and natural selection," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 123-135.
    3. Guglielmo Barone & Guido de Blasio & Sauro Mocetti, 2016. "The real effects of credit crunch in the Great Recession: evidence from Italian provinces," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1057, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vasco M. CARVALHO & NIREI Makoto & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 14035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    7. repec:bla:obuest:v:79:y:2017:i:4:p:546-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price comovement," ESRB Working Paper Series 48, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis: evidence from individual firm¨Cbank relationships in Germany," Working Papers 1516, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    10. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    11. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2015. "Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low-Income Countries Special?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 73-100, February.
    12. Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Power Laws in Economics: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 185-206, Winter.
    13. Banerjee, Ryan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Sette, Enrico, 2017. "The real effects of relationship lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 12340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. João Amador & Arne J. Nagengast, 2015. "The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment," Working Papers w201515, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    16. repec:hrv:faseco:34651705 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," BIS Working Papers 600, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Greetje Everaert & Natasha X Che & Nan Geng & Bertrand Gruss & Gregorio Impavido & Yinqiu Lu & Christian Saborowski & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Li Zeng, 2015. "Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 15/15, International Monetary Fund.
    19. KIM, Hyonok & WILCOX, James A. & YASUDA, Yukihiro, 2016. "Shocks and Shock Absorbers in Japanese Bonds and Banks During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series G-1-16, Center for Financial Research, Graduate School of Commerce and Management, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M. Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From Financial to Real Economic Crisis: Evidence from Individual Firm-Bank Relationships in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1510, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Michael Kleemann & Manuel Wiegand, 2014. "Are Real Effects of Credit Supply Overestimated? Bias from Firms' Current Situation and Future Expectations," ifo Working Paper Series 192, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    22. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:125-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ferrando, Annalisa & Mulier, Klaas, 2015. "The real effects of credit constraints: evidence from discouraged borrowers in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1842, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporations - Finance ; Investments ; Bank loans - Japan ; Credit ; Bank size;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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