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How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data

Listed author(s):
  • Amiti, Mary
  • Weinstein, David E.

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on firms’ investment. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firm credit shocks from loan supply shocks using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for the period 1990 to 2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks as in Gabaix (2011). As a result, idiosyncratic bank shocks i.e., movements in bank loan supply net of borrower characteristics and general credit conditions can have large impacts on aggregate loan supply and investment. We show that these idiosyncratic bank shocks explain 40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9400.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9400
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  1. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:1-59 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
  3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2010. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," NBER Working Papers 16528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, 05.
  5. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
  6. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
  7. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  8. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kuttner, Kenneth N & Palia, Darius N, 2002. "Are There Bank Effects in Borrowers' Costs of Funds? Evidence from a Matched Sample of Borrowers and Banks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 559-581, October.
  9. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
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