IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20161914.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment

Author

Listed:
  • Amador, João
  • Nagengast, Arne J.

Abstract

We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2013) to a rich dataset of matched bank-firm loans in the Portuguese economy for the period 2005 to 2013. We argue that their decomposition framework can also be used in the presence of small firms with only one banking relationship as long as they account for only a small share of the total loan volume of their banks. The growth rate of individual loans in our dataset is decomposed into bank, firm, industry and common shocks. Adverse bank shocks are found to impair firm-level investment in all firms in our sample, but in particular for small firms and those with no access to alternative financing sources. For the economy as a whole, granular shocks in the banking system account for around 20-40% of aggregate investment dynamics. JEL Classification: E32, E44, G21, G32

Suggested Citation

  • Amador, João & Nagengast, Arne J., 2016. "The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment," Working Paper Series 1914, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1914.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Berthou, Antoine & Soares, Ana Cristina & Bugamelli, Matteo & Cazacu, Ana-Maria & Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Harasztosi, Péter & Demian, Calin-Vlad & Oropallo, Filippo, 2015. "Assessing European firms' exports and productivity distributions: the CompNet trade module," Working Paper Series 1788, European Central Bank.
    2. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2018. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross‐Country Evidence of Granularity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1785-1825, December.
    3. Tsutomu Watanabe & Iichiro Uesugi & Arito Ono (ed.), 2015. "The Economics of Interfirm Networks," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-4-431-55390-8.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    6. Groemping, Ulrike, 2006. "Relative Importance for Linear Regression in R: The Package relaimpo," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 17(i01).
    7. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & HOSONO Kaoru & UCHINO Taisuke & ONO Arito & UCHIDA Hirofumi & UESUGI Iichiro, 2014. "Financial Shocks and Firm Exports: A natural experiment approach with a massive earthquake," Discussion papers 14010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    9. Lopez-Garcia, P. ; di Mauro, F. ; the CompNet Task Force, 2015. "Assessing European competitiveness : The new CompNet micro-based database," Working Paper Research 279, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    11. Luís M B Cabral & José Mata, 2003. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1075-1090, September.
    12. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    13. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
    14. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    15. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    16. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank & Simmler, Martin, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis. Evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    18. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis: evidence from individual firm¨Cbank relationships in Germany," Working Papers 1516, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    19. Ana Cristina Soares & João Amador, 2013. "Competition in the portuguese economy: Estimated price-cost margins under imperfect labour markets," Working Papers w201308, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Barclay, Michael J & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1995. "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 609-631, June.
    21. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    22. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    23. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    24. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    25. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    26. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    27. Sharpe, Steven A, 1994. "Financial Market Imperfections, Firm Leverage, and the Cyclicality of Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1060-1074, September.
    28. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
    29. Kaoru Hosono & Daisuke Miyakawa & Taisuke Uchino & Makoto Hazama & Arito Ono & Hirofumi Uchida & Iichiro Uesugi, 2016. "Natural Disasters, Damage To Banks, And Firm Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1335-1370, November.
    30. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2013. "How much do bank shocks affect investment? Evidence from matched bank-firm loan data," Staff Reports 604, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    31. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    32. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
    33. Stohs, Mark Hoven & Mauer, David C, 1996. "The Determinants of Corporate Debt Maturity Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 279-312, July.
    34. Whited, Toni M., 2006. "External finance constraints and the intertemporal pattern of intermittent investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 467-502, September.
    35. Michael W. Klein & Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2002. "Troubled Banks, Impaired Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Relative Access to Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 664-682, June.
    36. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 347-372.
    37. Ana Cristina Soares & João Amador, 2013. "Competition in the Portuguese Economy: Estimated Price-Cost Margins Under Imperfect Labour Markets," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    38. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    39. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2008. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2857-2888, November.
    40. Kennedy, Peter, 1986. "Interpreting Dummy Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 174-175, February.
    41. Kim, Moshe & Kliger, Doron & Vale, Bent, 2003. "Estimating switching costs: the case of banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-56, January.
    42. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
    43. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    44. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
    45. Ugo Albertazzi & Domenico J. Marchetti, 2010. "Credit supply, flight to quality and evergreening: an analysis of bank-firm relationships after Lehman," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 756, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Romano, Claudio A. & Tanewski, George A. & Smyrnios, Kosmas X., 2001. "Capital structure decision making: A model for family business," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 285-310, May.
    47. repec:lmu:muenar:20226 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Suits, Daniel B, 1984. "Dummy Variables: Mechanics v. Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 177-180, February.
    49. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    50. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    51. Alexander Popov & Neeltje van Horen, 2013. "The impact of sovereign debt exposure on bank lending: Evidence from the European debt crisis," DNB Working Papers 382, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    52. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    53. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Kaoru Hosono & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2015. "Bank Lending and Firm Activities: Overcoming Identification Problems," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Tsutomu Watanabe & Iichiro Uesugi & Arito Ono (ed.), The Economics of Interfirm Networks, edition 127, chapter 12, pages 237-260, Springer.
    55. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    56. Ferrando, Annalisa & Altomonte, Carlo & Blank, Sven & Meinen, Philipp & Iudice, Matteo & Felt, Marie-Hélène & Neugebauer, Katja & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2015. "Assessing the financial and financing conditions of firms in Europe: the financial module in CompNet," Working Paper Series 1836, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marianna Endrész, 2020. "The bank lending channel during financial turmoil," MNB Working Papers 2020/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Sobiech, Anna L. & Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S., 2021. "The real effects of bank taxation: Evidence for corporate financing and investment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    4. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    5. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    7. Nasha Ananchotikul & Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2017. "Bank Supply Shocks and Firm Investment: A Granular View from the Thai Credit Registry Data," PIER Discussion Papers 67, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Corporate debt and investment: a firm analysis for stressed euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2101, European Central Bank.
    10. Barbieri, Claudio & Couaillier, Cyril & Perales, Cristian & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Informing macroprudential policy choices using credit supply and demand decompositions," Working Paper Series 2702, European Central Bank.
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Bouscasse, Paul, 2022. "Supply or Demand: What Drives Fluctuations in the Bank Loan Market?," Working Paper Series 2646, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank & Simmler, Martin, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis. Evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Weinstein, David & Amiti, Mary, 2013. "How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Steven Poelhekke & Razvan Vlahu & Vadym Volosovych, 2021. "Corporate Acquisitions and Bank Relationships," Working Papers 726, DNB.
    7. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis: evidence from individual firm¨Cbank relationships in Germany," Working Papers 1516, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    8. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    9. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2018. "Financial markets, banks’ cost of funding, and firms’ decisions: Lessons from two crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
    11. Uchida, Hirofumi & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Ono, Arito & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2015. "Financial shocks, bankruptcy, and natural selection," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 123-135.
    12. Karmakar, Sudipto & Lima, Diogo, 2023. "Global capital flows and the role of macroprudential policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Bucă, Andra & Vermeulen, Philip, 2017. "Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-180.
    14. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    16. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    17. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    18. Pavel Chakraborty, 2024. "Bank ownership and firm performance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 238-267, January.
    19. Leila Aghabarari & Andre Guettler & Mahvish Naeem & Bernardus Van Doornik, 2021. "Is there help indeed, if there is help in need? The case of credit unions during the global financial crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1215-1233, July.
    20. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banks; credit dynamics; firm-level data; investment; portuguese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.