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Navigating credit dynamics: does it matter for firm-level investment? Evidence from AnaCredit

Author

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  • Saiz, Lorena
  • Kocabaş, Serkan

Abstract

This study investigates how credit supply shocks impact firm-level investment across the euro area using the novel AnaCredit database. Employing the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2018), we decompose loan growth rates into four components: bank-specific, firm-specific, industry-specific, and common shocks. Our findings show that idiosyncratic bank supply shocks significantly affect firm-level investment, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on bank loans. Furthermore, these granular bank-specific shocks explain most of the aggregate loan dynamics. We also find that the effects of bank shocks vary depending on firm characteristics, such as firm size, loan portfolio composition, and reliance on external financing. These results underscore the critical role banks play in shaping investment dynamics, especially under varying economic conditions. JEL Classification: E22, E50, G21, G31

Suggested Citation

  • Saiz, Lorena & Kocabaş, Serkan, 2026. "Navigating credit dynamics: does it matter for firm-level investment? Evidence from AnaCredit," Working Paper Series 3173, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263173
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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