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No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns

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  • Niepmann, Friederike
  • Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim

Abstract

Employing new data on U.S. banks' trade-finance claims by country, this paper estimates the effect of letter-of-credit supply shocks on U.S. exports. We show that a one-standard deviation negative shock to a country's letter-of-credit supply reduces U.S. exports to that country by 1.5 percentage points. This effect is driven by countries that are small and where few banks are active. It more than doubles during the 2007-09 crisis. The provision of letters of credit is highly concentrated and banks are geographically specialized. Therefore, shocks to individual banks can have sizable effects in the aggregate and affect trade patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:338-350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.07.007
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    3. Caballero, Julian & Candelaria, Christopher & Hale, Galina, 2018. "Bank linkages and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 30-47.
    4. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Hassib, Omar & van Horen, Neeltje, 2017. "The role of foreign banks in trade," Bank of England working papers 656, Bank of England.
    6. Bryan Hardy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks and real outcomes," BIS Working Papers 758, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    8. Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Financial globalization and foreign direct investment," DNB Working Papers 527, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Defever,Fabrice Fernand & Riano,Alejandro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Export Finance Support on Firm-Level Export Performance : Evidence from Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9362, The World Bank.
    10. Cheng Zhang & Ni Hu, 2020. "A New Method for Computing Letter of Credit Risks," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    11. Silvia Del Prete & Stefano Federico, 0. "Do links between banks matter for bilateral trade? Evidence from financial crises," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    12. Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2017. "Diversification and Specialization of U.S. States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-91, Winter.
    13. Francesco Bripi & David Loschiavo & Davide Revelli, 2020. "Services trade and credit frictions: Evidence with matched bank–firm data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1216-1252, May.
    14. Ali Polat & Mehmet Yesilyaprak, 2017. "Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 12-24, August.
    15. Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2015. "Cutting the credit line: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 25/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "The heterogeneous response of domestic sales and exports to bank credit shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 55-73.
    17. Holod, Dmytro & Torna, Gökhan, 2018. "Do community banks contribute to international trade? Evidence from U.S. Data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-204.
    18. P. Beaumont, 2017. "Time is Money: Cash-Flow Risk and Export Market Behavior," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2017-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
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    20. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade finance; Global banks; Letter of credit; Exports; Financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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