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No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns

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  • Friederike Niepmann
  • Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

Abstract

This study provides evidence that shocks to the supply of trade finance have a causal effect on U.S. exports. The identification strategy exploits variation in the importance of banks as providers of letters of credit across countries. The larger a U.S. bank’s share of the trade finance market in a country is, the larger should be the effect on exports to that country if the bank changes its supply of letters of credit. We find that a shock of one standard deviation to a country’s supply of letters of credit increases export growth, on average, by 1.5 percentage points. The effect is larger for exports to small and poor destinations and more than doubles during times of financial distress. The results imply that banks affect firms’ export behavior and suggests that trade finance played a role in the Great Trade Collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2014. "No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns," CESifo Working Paper Series 4650, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4650
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    3. Caballero, Julian & Candelaria, Christopher & Hale, Galina, 2018. "Bank linkages and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 30-47.
    4. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Hassib, Omar & van Horen, Neeltje, 2017. "The role of foreign banks in trade," Bank of England working papers 656, Bank of England.
    6. Bryan Hardy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks and real outcomes," BIS Working Papers 758, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    8. Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Financial globalization and foreign direct investment," DNB Working Papers 527, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Defever,Fabrice Fernand & Riano,Alejandro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Export Finance Support on Firm-Level Export Performance : Evidence from Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9362, The World Bank.
    10. Cheng Zhang & Ni Hu, 2020. "A New Method for Computing Letter of Credit Risks," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    11. Silvia Del Prete & Stefano Federico, 0. "Do links between banks matter for bilateral trade? Evidence from financial crises," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    12. Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2017. "Diversification and Specialization of U.S. States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-91, Winter.
    13. Francesco Bripi & David Loschiavo & Davide Revelli, 2020. "Services trade and credit frictions: Evidence with matched bank–firm data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1216-1252, May.
    14. Ali Polat & Mehmet Yesilyaprak, 2017. "Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 12-24, August.
    15. Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2015. "Cutting the credit line: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 25/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "The heterogeneous response of domestic sales and exports to bank credit shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 55-73.
    17. Holod, Dmytro & Torna, Gökhan, 2018. "Do community banks contribute to international trade? Evidence from U.S. Data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-204.
    18. P. Beaumont, 2017. "Time is Money: Cash-Flow Risk and Export Market Behavior," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2017-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    19. Claessens, Stijn & van Horen, Neeltje, 2021. "Foreign banks and trade," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    20. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    21. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    22. Koen van der Veer, 2015. "Loss shocks and the quantity and price of private export credit insurance: Evidence from a global insurer," DNB Working Papers 462, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    23. Agarwal, Natasha & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "Institutions for Non-Simultaneous Exchange: Microeconomic Evidence from Export Insurance," Working Papers 2018:12, Örebro University, School of Business, revised 13 Nov 2019.
    24. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2019. "Trade and credit: revisiting the evidence," Working Papers 1901, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade finance; global banks; letter of credit; exports; financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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