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No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns

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  • Friederike Niepmann
  • Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

Abstract

This study provides evidence that shocks to the supply of trade finance have a causal effect on U.S. exports. The identification strategy exploits variation in the importance of banks as providers of letters of credit across countries. The larger a U.S. bank’s share of the trade finance market in a country is, the larger should be the effect on exports to that country if the bank changes its supply of letters of credit. We find that a shock of one standard deviation to a country’s supply of letters of credit increases export growth, on average, by 1.5 percentage points. The effect is larger for exports to small and poor destinations and more than doubles during times of financial distress. The results imply that banks affect firms’ export behavior and suggests that trade finance played a role in the Great Trade Collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2014. "No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns," CESifo Working Paper Series 4650, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4650
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2017. "Diversification and Specialization of U.S. States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-91, Winter.
    2. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    3. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Hassib, Omar & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2017. "The Role of Foreign Banks in Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 11821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Financial globalization and foreign direct investment," DNB Working Papers 527, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2015. "Cutting the credit line: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 25/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Koen van der Veer, 2015. "Loss shocks and the quantity and price of private export credit insurance: Evidence from a global insurer," DNB Working Papers 462, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2016. "Friendly fire - the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2059, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The heterogeneous response of domestic sales and exports to bank credit shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1066, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade finance; global banks; letter of credit; exports; financial shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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