IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lie/wpaper/101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Firm Cohort matter for their Performance following the Financial Crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Mustapha Douch

    (Bank of Lithuania, The University of Edinburgh)

  • Huw Edwards

    (Loughborough University)

  • Sushanta Mallick

    (Queen Mary University)

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on how the aftermath of the 2008 crisis affected firm productivity in the UK, taking account of the cohort effect of firms established after 2008. We test this using firmspecific and time-varying credit scores to capture firms’ ability to access credit. To overcome the identification problem, a matched sample based on firm’s credit score, firm age, size and ownership status is used by undertaking the propensity score matching approach. While we find evidence that smaller firm size and changes in credit conditions affect productivity, about half of the difference in productivity remains unexplained. We extend the matching analysis to examine sectors and cohorts, and find that, during 2011-2016, the low productivity is driven primarily by newer firms operating in the services sector, rather than in manufacturing. Within services, the underlying productivity puzzle is driven by a cessation of growth in high-productivity financial services, while abundant labour supply has led to a ‘levelling down’ of performance of newer firms in the rest of services, in line with relatively lowproductivity manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustapha Douch & Huw Edwards & Sushanta Mallick, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Firm Cohort matter for their Performance following the Financial Crisis?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 101, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lb.lt/uploads/publications/docs/34583_c5c16d78a5751d538980cc35bc6b6361.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy Franklin & May Rostom & Gregory Thwaites, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK," Discussion Papers 1525, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Franklin, Jeremy & Rostom, May & Thwaites, Gregory, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 557, Bank of England.
    3. Saleheen, Jumana & Levina, Iren & Melolinna, Marko & Tatomir, Srdan, 2017. "The financial system and productive investment: new survey evidence," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 57(1), pages 4-17.
    4. Arrowsmith, Martin & Griffiths, Martin & Franklin, Jeremy & Wohlmann, Evan & Young, Garry & Gregory, David, 2013. "SME forbearance and its implications for monetary and financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 296-303.
    5. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    6. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    7. Riley, Rebecca & Rosazza-Bondibene, Chiara & Young, Garry, 2014. "The Financial Crisis, Bank Lending and UK Productivity: Sectoral and Firm-Level Evidence," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228, pages 17-34, May.
    8. Iacus, Stefano & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2009. "cem: Software for Coarsened Exact Matching," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 30(i09).
    9. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    10. Chris Belfield & Richard Blundell & Jonathan Cribb & Andrew Hood & Robert Joyce, 2017. "Two Decades of Income Inequality in Britain: The Role of Wages, Household Earnings and Redistribution," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(334), pages 157-179, April.
    11. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    12. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    14. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    15. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Şelale Tüzel, 2014. "Firm-Level Productivity, Risk, and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 2073-2090, August.
    16. Marc Cowling & George Tanewski, 2019. "On the productive efficiency of Australian businesses: firm size and age class effects," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 739-752, October.
    17. Lee, Neil & Sameen, Hiba & Cowling, Marc, 2015. "Access to finance for innovative SMEs since the financial crisis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 370-380.
    18. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    19. Jeremy Franklin & May Rostom & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Banks that Said No: the Impact of Credit Supply on Productivity and Wages," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 149-179, April.
    20. Matthew Blackwell & Stefano Iacus & Gary King & Giuseppe Porro, 2009. "cem: Coarsened exact matching in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(4), pages 524-546, December.
    21. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    22. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    23. Doan Thi Thanh Ha & Kozo Kiyota, 2014. "Firm-Level Evidence on Productivity Differentials and Turnover in Vietnamese Manufacturing," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(2), pages 193-217, June.
    24. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    25. Aw, Bee Yan & Chen, Xiaomin & Roberts, Mark J., 2001. "Firm-level evidence on productivity differentials and turnover in Taiwanese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 51-86, October.
    26. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    27. Barnett, Alina & Batten, Sandra & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 114-128.
    28. João Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Wage Flexibility?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 433-452, May.
    29. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    30. Mark Freel, 2007. "Are Small Innovators Credit Rationed?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-35, January.
    31. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    32. King, Gary & Nielsen, Richard, 2019. "Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 435-454, October.
    33. Roberto Samaniego & Juliana Sun, 2016. "Productivity Growth and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 266-285, July.
    34. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    35. Francesca Maria Cesaroni & Francesca Lotti & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2013. "Female firms and banks� lending behaviour: what happened during the great recession?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 177, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-666.
    37. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    38. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    39. Daniel Monteiro, 2013. "The flow of credit in the UK economy and the availability of financing to the corporate sector," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 509, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    40. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    41. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    42. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    43. Rizov, Marian & Croucher, Richard & Lange, Thomas, 2016. "The UK national minimum wage's impact on productivity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 819-835.
    44. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2018. "Accounting for the UK Productivity Puzzle: A Decomposition and Predictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 581-605, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Roberto Ganau & Kristina Maslauskaite & Monica Brezzi, 2021. "Credit constraints, labor productivity, and the role of regional institutions: Evidence from manufacturing firms in Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 299-328, March.
    3. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards & Jan Van Hove & Janez Kren, 2021. "The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: A cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2838-2857, October.
    4. Baccini, Leonardo & Impullitti, Giammario & Malesky, Edmund J., 2019. "Globalization and state capitalism: Assessing Vietnam's accession to the WTO," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-92.
    5. Millard, Stephen & Nicolae, Anamaria & Nower, Michael, 2019. "International trade, non-trading firms and their impact on labour productivity," Bank of England working papers 787, Bank of England.
    6. T. Libert, 2017. "Misallocation Before, During and After the Great Recession," Working papers 658, Banque de France.
    7. Nick Jacob & Giordano Mion, 2023. "The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 993-1022, October.
    8. R. Cezar, 2016. "France’s trade integration measured in value added," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 47-58, Autumn.
    9. A. Berthou, 2016. "Current account adjustments and productivity dynamics in Europe during the crisis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 59-70, Autumn.
    10. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    11. V. Bignon & F. Boissay & C. Cahn & L.-M. Harpedanne de Belleville, 2016. "Extended eligibility of credit claims for Eurosystem refinancing Consequences for the supply of credit to companies," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 15-23, Autumn.
    12. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2019. "Financial constraints on investment: Effects of firm size and the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 441-457.
    13. J. Morenas & B. Rudelle, 2016. "Money and its counterparts in France and in the euro area," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 25-34, Autumn.
    14. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. V. Grossmann-Wirth & M. Vari, 2016. "Exiting low interest rates in a situation of excess liquidity: the experience of the Fed," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 5-14, Autumn.
    17. C. Guette-Khiter, 2016. "Non-resident holdings of French CAC 40 companies at end-2015," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 35-46, Autumn.
    18. Francesco Manaresi & Mr. Nicola Pierri, 2019. "Credit Supply and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/107, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Jose Asturias & Sewon Hur & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2023. "Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 48-105, January.
    20. Mauro Caselli & Arpita Chatterjee & Shengyu Li, 2023. "Productivity and Quality of Multi-product Firms," Discussion Papers 2023-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    : Total Factor Productivity; Cohort; Crisis; Firm Survival; Credit Score.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aurelija Proskute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lbanklt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.