IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imp/wpaper/21167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accounting for the UK productivity puzzle: a decomposition and predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Haskel, J
  • Goodridge, P
  • Wallis, G

Abstract

This paper revisits the UK productivity puzzle using new data on outputs and inputs and clarifying the role of output mismeasurement, input growth and industry effects. Our data indicate an implied labour productivity gap of 13 percentage points in 2011 relative to the productivity level on pre‐recession trends. We find that: (a) the labour productivity puzzle is a TFP puzzle, since it is not explained by the contributions of labour or capital services; (b) the reallocation of labour between industries deepens rather than explains the puzzle (i.e. there has been a reallocation of hours away from low‐productivity industries and toward high productivity industries); (c) capitalization of R&D does not explain the productivity puzzle; (d) assuming increased scrapping rates since the recession, a 25% (50%) increase in depreciation rates post‐2009 can potentially explain 15% (31%) of the productivity puzzle; (e) industry data show that 35% of the TFP puzzle can be explained by weak TFP growth in the oil & gas and finance sectors; and (f) cyclical effects via factor utilization could potentially explain 17% of the productivity puzzle. Continued weakness in finance would suggest a future lowering of TFP growth to around 0.8% p.a. from a baseline of 0.9% p.a.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Haskel, J & Goodridge, P & Wallis, G, 2015. "Accounting for the UK productivity puzzle: a decomposition and predictions," Working Papers 21167, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:imp:wpaper:21167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/21167/4/TFP%20Puzzle_RR_Final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    2. Goodridge, PR & Haskel, J, 2015. "How does big data affect GDP? Theory and evidence for the UK," Working Papers 25156, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    3. Haskel, J & Goodridge, P & Wallis, G, 2012. "UK Innovation Index: productivity and growth in UK industries," Working Papers 9786, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    4. Hulten, Charles R., 1986. "Productivity change, capacity utilization, and the sources of efficiency growth," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 31-50.
    5. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    6. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1033-1082, Elsevier.
    7. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    8. Gavin Wallis, 2016. "Tax incentives and investment in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 465-483.
    9. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    10. Pessoa, João Paulo & Van Reenen, John, 2013. "The UK productivity and jobs puzzle: does the answer lie in labour market flexibility?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58010, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Richard Blundell & Claire Crawford & Wenchao Jin, 2014. "What Can Wages and Employment Tell Us about the UK's Productivity Puzzle?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 377-407, May.
    12. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2013. "Can Intangible Investment Explain the UK Productivity Puzzle?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224(1), pages 48-58, May.
    13. Goodridge, PR, 2014. "UK Innovation Index 2014," Working Papers 19156, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    14. Berndt, Ernst R. & Fuss, Melvyn A., 1986. "Productivity measurement with adjustments for variations in capacity utilization and other forms of temporary equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 7-29.
    15. Nicholas Crafts, 2015. "UK Economic Growth since 2010: Is it as Bad as it Seems?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 231(1), pages 17-29, February.
    16. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    17. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    20. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Harris, Richard I D & Drinkwater, Stephen, 2000. "UK Plant and Machinery Capital Stocks and Plant Closures," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 243-265, May.
    22. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Toma Lankauskienė, 2016. "Application of the growth accounting method for the construction industry," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 430-443, June.
    2. Nicholas Oulton, 2020. "Measuring Productivity: theory and British practice," Discussion Papers 2002, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Huw Dixon & ANTHONY SAVAGAR, 2017. "The Effect of Firm Entry on Capacity Utilization and Macroeconomic Productivity," 2017 Meeting Papers 1130, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Roberto Ganau, 2019. "Institutions and the Productivity Challenge for European Regions," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 116, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    6. Nicholas Oulton, 2019. "The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 110-141, Spring.
    7. Benjamin Hemingway, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of insolvency regimes," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 77, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    9. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    10. Clymo, AJ, 2017. "Heterogeneous Firms, Wages, and the Effects of Financial Crises," Economics Discussion Papers 20572, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Productivity patterns in Europe: adaptation of the Malmquist index to measuring group performance and productivity change over time," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 949-989, November.
    12. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Harald Finger & Siddharth Kothari & Yosuke Kido, 2020. "Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Schneider, Patrick, 2018. "Decomposing differences in productivity distributions," Bank of England working papers 740, Bank of England.
    14. Bill Martin & Centre for Business Research, 2018. "A Comment on Oulton, "The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?"," Working Papers wp498, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    15. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    16. Dacic, Nikola & Melolinna, Marko, 2019. "The empirics of granular origins: some challenges and solutions with an application to the UK," Bank of England working papers 842, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goodridge, PR & Haskel, J & Wallis, G, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle is a TFP puzzle: current data and future predictions," Working Papers 18381, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    2. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2017. "Spillovers from R&D and Other Intangible Investment: Evidence from UK Industries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 22-48, February.
    3. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    6. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Komlos John, 2016. "Has Creative Destruction become more Destructive?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, October.
    8. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    9. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Does ICT Remain a Powerful Engine of Growth," Post-Print hal-01463929, HAL.
    10. Hughes, Barry B. & Bohl, David & Irfan, Mohammod & Margolese-Malin, Eli & Solórzano, José R., 2017. "ICT/Cyber benefits and costs: Reconciling competing perspectives on the current and future balance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 117-130.
    11. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2019. "Growth, slowdowns, and recoveries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 47-63.
    12. Oulton, Nicholas & Wallis, Gavin, 2016. "Capital stocks and capital services: Integrated and consistent estimates for the United Kingdom, 1950–2013," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 117-125.
    13. Oulton, Nicholas & Wallis, Gavin, 2015. "Integrated estimates of capital stocks and services for the United Kingdom: 1950-2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61697, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Gilbert Cette & Simon Corde & Rémy Lecat, 2017. "Stagnation of productivity in France: A legacy of the crisis or a structural slowdown?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 11-36.
    15. Harris, Richard & Moffat, John, 2016. "Plant closure in Britain since the Great Recession," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 27-30.
    16. Stéphane Dees, 2017. "The role of confidence shocks in business cycles and their global dimension," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 48-65.
    17. Nicholas Oulton, 2019. "The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 110-141, Spring.
    18. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    19. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imp:wpaper:21167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbimpuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbimpuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.