IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v44y2021i10p2838-2857.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: A cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mustapha Douch
  • Terence Huw Edwards
  • Jan Van Hove
  • Janez Kren

Abstract

This paper uses a detailed data set of UK firms between 2005 and 16, to investigate how export participation and export values were affected by the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, and particularly the post‐crisis recovery period of 2011–16. Viewing the post‐crisis period as a treatment compared to before the crisis, we compare firm export propensity and export values using a propensity score matching approach. We conclude that the underlying relationships between size, productivity, creditworthiness and exports remained remarkably consistent throughout the period. After correcting for TFP and credit scores, we find relatively constant export propensity across the whole time period, except for younger firms in services industries, whose export propensity increased. Our results suggest that the slowdown in trade in this period has not been attributable to a change in underlying firm export behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards & Jan Van Hove & Janez Kren, 2021. "The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: A cohort‐ and firm‐level matching approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2838-2857, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:44:y:2021:i:10:p:2838-2857
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13078
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    2. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    3. Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Exporting, productivity and agglomeration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 919-939, July.
    4. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
    5. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-201, March.
    6. Arrowsmith, Martin & Griffiths, Martin & Franklin, Jeremy & Wohlmann, Evan & Young, Garry & Gregory, David, 2013. "SME forbearance and its implications for monetary and financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 296-303.
    7. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    8. Chaney, Thomas, 2016. "Liquidity constrained exporters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 141-154.
    9. George Alessandria, 2013. "The great trade collapse (and recovery)," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-10.
    10. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    11. Muûls, Mirabelle, 2015. "Exporters, importers and credit constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 333-343.
    12. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    13. Xiaobing Huang & Xiaolian Liu & Holger Görg, 2017. "Heterogeneous firms, financial constraints and export behaviour: A firm-level investigation for China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(11), pages 2328-2353, November.
    14. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    15. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    16. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    17. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    18. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    19. Görg, Holger & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2018. "Export market exit and financial health in crises periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 150-163.
    20. Jaana Remes, Jan Mischke and Mekala Krishnan, 2018. "Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 28-51, Fall.
    21. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    22. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
    23. Delgado, Miguel A. & Farinas, Jose C. & Ruano, Sonia, 2002. "Firm productivity and export markets: a non-parametric approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 397-422, August.
    24. Joachim Wagner, 2003. "Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(1), pages 161-172, March.
    25. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    26. Meredith A. Crowley & Xi Luo, 2011. "Understanding the great trade collapse of 2008–09 and the subsequent trade recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q II), pages 44-68.
    27. Minetti, Raoul & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2011. "Credit constraints and firm export: Microeconomic evidence from Italy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 109-125, March.
    28. David Greenaway & Joakim Gullstrand & Richard Kneller, 2005. "Exporting May Not Always Boost Firm Productivity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(4), pages 561-582, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muûls, Mirabelle, 2015. "Exporters, importers and credit constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 333-343.
    2. José Manuel Mansilla-Fernández & Juliette Milgram-Baleix, 2023. "Working capital management, financial constraints and exports: evidence from European and US manufacturers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1769-1810, April.
    3. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Juan A. Máñez Castillejo & Oscar Vicente-Chirivella, 2019. "Exports of Spanish manufacturing firms and financial constraints," Working Papers 1921, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    5. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    6. Fan, Haichao & Lai, Edwin L.-C. & Li, Yao Amber, 2015. "Credit constraints, quality, and export prices: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 390-416.
    7. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    8. El-Sahli, Zouheir & Maczulskij, Terhi & Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina, 2023. "Firm-Level Consequences of Export Demand Shocks: Swedish and Finnish Exporters," ETLA Working Papers 108, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    10. Mustapha Douch & Huw Edwards & Sushanta Mallick, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Firm Cohort matter for their Performance following the Financial Crisis?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 101, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Zhou, Tianhang & Li, Xue & Yan, Guo & Li, Jie, 2022. "How productivity and credit constraints affect exports differently? Firm-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 207-230.
    12. Bergin, Paul R. & Feng, Ling & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Trade and firm financing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Li, Jie & Lan, Liping & Ouyang, Zhigang, 2020. "Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Silvio Contessi & Francesca De Nicola, 2012. "What do we know about the relationship between access to finance and international trade?," Working Papers 2012-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Memanova, Tamilyam & Mylonidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "Exploring the nexus between bank market power and exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 222-233.
    16. Youngho Kang, 2021. "How you pay matters: performance-related pay and learning by exporting," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2455-2475, May.
    17. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    18. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    19. Minetti, Raoul & Murro, Pierluigi & Rowe, Nicholas, 2021. "When Does Finance Help Trade? Banking Structures and Export in the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 2021-3, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Gregory Corcos & Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Yuanzhe Tang, "undated". "Firm-level export and import survival over the business cycle," Working Papers 2022-22, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:44:y:2021:i:10:p:2838-2857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.