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Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Hackworth

    (Bank of England)

  • Amar Radia

    (Bank of England)

  • Nyssa Roberts

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Macroeconomic performance in the United Kingdom has been disappointing in recent years: for most of the post-crisis period, GDP growth has been unexpectedly weak, and inflation unexpectedly strong. That unexpected weakness in GDP reflects a combination of weaker growth in the United Kingdom’s trading partners, tighter domestic credit conditions and slower dissipation of uncertainty. Unanticipated rises in energy and other imported costs can broadly account for the surprising strength in inflation since mid-2010. Weak effective supply is likely to have counteracted the impact of weak demand on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Hackworth & Amar Radia & Nyssa Roberts, 2013. "Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 336-350.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
    3. Shiv Chowla & Lucia Quaglietti & Lukasz Rachel, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
    4. Eleni Argiri & Stephen G. Hall & Angeliki Momtsia & Daphne Marina Papadopoulou & Ifigeneia Skotida & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2024. "An evaluation of the inflation forecasting performance of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 932-947, July.
    5. Nicholas Fawcett & Lena Koerber & Riccardo Masolo & Matthew Waldron, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
    6. Philip Bunn & May Rostom, 2014. "Household debt and spending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 304-315.
    7. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.

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