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Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts

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  • Alexander HARIN

    (Modern University for the Humanities, Russia)

Abstract

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of uncertain future, namely of its first consequence. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Possible applications of the hypothesis in the field of forecasting are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts after partially unforeseen events have occurred. Particularly, correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed, including additive-multiplicative formulae. The hypothesis of uncertain future, its consequences and their possible applications are briefly reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:exp:econcs:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:69-79
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harin, Alexander, 2018. "Forbidden zones for the expectation of a random variable. New version 1," MPRA Paper 84248, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast; uncertainty; risk; utility; Ellsberg paradox;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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