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The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Exports: A Sectoral Analysis for Turkey

Author

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  • Nergiz Dincer

    () (Planning Expert, State Planning Organization, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Magda Kandil

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates higher sensitivity of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. Anticipated exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Exports: A Sectoral Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 480, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:480
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
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    6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic Equilibrium Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 855-889, December.
    7. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    8. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    9. Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas, 2003. "The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 89-117.
    11. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2016. "Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 445-460, August.
    2. repec:kap:sbusec:v:49:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11187-017-9849-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.
    4. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.

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