Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence
This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output growth and price inflation in a sample of twenty-two developing countries. The analysis introduces a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the output and price responses to changes in the exchange rate. In general, exchange rate depreciation, both anticipated and unanticipated, decreases real output growth and increases price inflation. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effects of currency depreciation on economic performance in developing countries.
Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.jed.or.kr/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986.
"Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Aghdas Mirzai, 2000. "Real and nominal effective exchange rates for developing countries: 1973:1-1997:3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 411-428.
- Dufour, J.M., 1981.
"Generalized Chow Tests for Structural Change: a Coordinate-Free Approach,"
Cahiers de recherche
8128, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Generalized Chow Tests for Structural Change: A Coordinate-Free Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 565-75, October.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
- Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
- Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
- Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G, 1997. "Cyclical Comovements in Industrial Labor and Product Markets: Theory and Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 725-44, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:29:y:2004:i:1:p:85-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Changhui Kang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.