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The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam

Author

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  • Le Viet Trung

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

  • Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's economic activity using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling and cointegration techniques. We use monthly data for the period 1995-2009 and include inflation and the real effective exchange rate as additional determinants of economic activity. We find evidence of a long-run relationship between oil prices, inflation, exchange rate, and economic activity. The results suggest that both oil prices and the real effective exchange rates have strongly significant impact on economic activity. An increase in oil price or depreciation may enhance economic activity. Vietnamese economic activity is influenced more by changes of value of Vietnamese currency than the fluctuations of oil prices. Inflation has a positive impact on economic activity however its impact is not highly significant. This suggests that moderate inflation is helpful rather than harmful to economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2011-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohsen Mehrara & Abbas Rezazadeh Karsalari, 2011. "Oil Revenues, Economic Growth and Resource Curse in Iran Economy," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 73-80.
    3. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Sidra NAZIR, 2016. "Oil Prices and REER with Impact of Regime Dummies," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 123-133, March.
    4. Nguyen, Xuan & Nguyen, Cuong, 2016. "The Impact of Petroleum Retail Price Shocks on Inflation in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 93136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Deluna, Roperto Jr, 2014. "The Long-run Relationship among World Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Inflation in the Philippines," MPRA Paper 60116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Isaacs, Ziyaat & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Testing the long-run relationship between exchange rate, oil price, FDI and GDP: an ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 109279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yu Hsing & Minh Q. Huynh, 2019. "Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 45-56, June.
    8. Asset Izatov, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices, the Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(3), pages 48-70.
    9. Sakib Bin Amin & Noshin Nawal Audry & Ahmed Farah Ulfat, 2021. "The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 427-435.
    10. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
    11. Charles O. Manasseh & Janathan E. Ogbuabor & Felicia C. Abada & Okoro E.U. Okoro & Aja Ebeke Egele & Josaphat U. Onwumere, 2019. "Analysis of Oil Price Oscillations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Economic Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 95-106.
    12. Izatov, Asset, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 70735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    13. Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Asymmetry of the Oil Price Pass Through to Inflation in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Economic activity; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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