IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/49797.html

Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software

Author

Listed:
  • Sukati, Mphumuzi

Abstract

This paper investigates the concept of vector autoregression (VAR) and cointegration using a bivariate model of global oil prices and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Africa. The study aims to determine how much of inflation is driven by oil prices. Particular attention is paid to the theoretical underpinnings of cointergration analysis and the application of STATA software to undertake such analysis and perform test statistics. Contrary to the popular myth that a rise in global oil prices fuels inflation, this study has observed that global oil prices are not the drivers of inflation in South Africa. In this way, other macroeconomic indicators and policy developments need to be integrated in analyzing the determinants of South African inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2013. "Cointegration Analysis of Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in South Africa using STATA Software," MPRA Paper 49797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49797/1/MPRA_paper_49797.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    3. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2010. "Commodity prices, money and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 331-345, July.
    4. Jostein Paulsen, 1984. "Order Determination Of Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series With Unit Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 115-127, March.
    5. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Oct), pages 21-38.
    6. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    8. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    9. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(1), pages 75-120, January.
    10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    14. Le Viet Trung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Vinh, 2011. "The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mndzebele, Mancoba Knowledge, 2021. "The key determinants of food inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini," Research Theses 334768, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Financial cycles synchronisation in South Africa. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2321069-232, December.
    3. Allan, R. & Daud, A. & Rosli, A., 2024. "Cointegration Analysis of the World's Black Pepper Export Market Among Major Producers," 1st ASEAN University Symposium for Sustainable Food Systems, Faculty of Economics, Kasetsart University, Thailand. April 18-19, 2024 344439, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    4. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    2. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Ateeque Anwer, 2024. "How Oil Price Shocks Influence on Inflation Rate? Evidence from Malaysian Economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 350-356.
    4. Daniel Francois Meyer, 2018. "The Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Proceedings of the 11th International RAIS Conference, November 19-20, 2018 010DM, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    5. Akoum, Ibrahim & Graham, Michael & Kivihaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed, 2012. "Co-movement of oil and stock prices in the GCC region: A wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 385-394.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    7. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    9. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Regime differences and industry heterogeneity of the volatility transmission from the energy price to the PPI," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 900-916.
    10. Verheyen, Florian, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 216, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    12. John Paleologos & Grigorios Bitzis, 2006. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Movements on the Greek Current Account Deficit: A Cointegration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 45-64.
    13. Kim, Won Joong & Ko, Juyoung & Kwon, Won Soon & Piao, Chunyan, 2025. "Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Florian Verheyen, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US," Ruhr Economic Papers 0216, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Sarwar, Muhammad Nadeem & Hussain, Hamid & Maqbool, Muhammad Bilal, 2020. "Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    17. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    18. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    19. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    20. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.