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Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis

  • Satya Paul
  • Colm Kearney
  • Kabir Chowdhury

The world eocnomy is currently adjusting to a low inflation regime which has implicastions for the cross-country distribution of world growth opportunities. In contrast to previous related work which assumes unidirectional causality, this paper uses the Granger methodology to examine both the direction and pattern of causality between inflation and economic growth in 70 countries using annual data over the period 1960-89. Among the conclusions are that first, the relationship between inflation and growth is non-uniform across countries: 40% of countries studied reveal no causality, one-third exhibit unidirectional causality and about one-fifth of countries show bidirectional causality, second, a vast majority of countries which show either uni- or bi-directional causality beong to the industrial group, and third, the low world inflation regime will on balance redistribute real growth opportunities benefit away from the developing countries towards the industrialized countries.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036849700000029
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1387-1401

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:10:p:1387-1401
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  1. McCallum, Bennett T, 1977. "Price-Level Stickiness and the Feasibility of Monetary Stabilization Policy with Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 627-34, June.
  2. Kang, Heejoon, 1985. "The Effects of Detrending in Granger Causality Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 344-49, October.
  3. Laidler, D., 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8804, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  5. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
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