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Are Real Devaluations Contractionary? an Empirical Analysis for Pakistan

  • Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak

    ()

    (Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.)

  • Muhammad Tariq

    ()

    (Ph.D. Scholar at Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.)

The failure of Bretton Woods system in 1970s diverted the attention of the researchers and policy makers from the orthodox wisdoms of elasticities, absorptions and Keynesian towards the new structuralist theories of contractionary depreciations. The present study has been carried out to test this contractionary hypothesis of real depreciations for Pakistan in the framework of a three version IS curve approach by using annual data over the period, 1973-2008. The main finding of the study is that real depreciation increases the output gap in Pakistan. The results also show that movement towards a more flexible exchange rate regimes also raises the output gap.

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Article provided by Asian Economic and Social Society in its journal Asian Economic and Financial Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 119-134

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Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:119-134
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  1. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
  2. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
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  11. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Melander, Ola, 2009. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in an Economy with Extreme Liability Dollarization," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 715, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 28 Jul 2009.
  14. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  15. Guerrero, Federico, 2006. "Does inflation cause poor long-term growth performance?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 72-89, January.
  16. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
  17. Mohammad Afzal, 2004. "Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 757-770.
  18. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
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